2026 Predictions:
Ten trends supply houses should know

As 2025 comes to a close, it’s time for me to review my predictions from last year and predict ten more trends for 2026. Just like last year, I will avoid predicting where the stock market will be at the end of 2026; instead, I will stick to identifying trends that supply houses will find important in the upcoming year. My scorecard shows I got 7.25 out of 12 right. With all of that, let's jump in and review my 2025 predictions.

2025 predictions – How did we do?

US leads/moderate global growth:

Prediction: Global GDP growth will stabilize, with Asia continuing to lead manufacturing and supply, while Europe lags due to energy and immigration issues.

Verdict: Mostly True. Global growth is holding steady near 3.0%, led by Asia’s strong manufacturing output. Europe continues to face headwinds from energy instability and labor pressures, validating most of the forecast.

Global supply chains:

Prediction: Resilience strategies will continue to regionalize supply chains through “friendshoring.”

Verdict: True. The trend toward regionalized and geopolitically safer supply chains has strengthened. Vietnam, India, and Mexico have all gained share in global manufacturing networks, confirming this shift.

Economic boom:

Prediction: The U.S. will experience near double-digit growth with pro-business policies, leading to a stock market boom and a surge in new residential and commercial permits.

Verdict: Partially True. The stock market has performed well, with the S&P 500 up 15.69% YTD as of October 2025, but supply house metrics paint a weaker picture. Real GDP contracted 0.6% in Q1, and housing permits continue to fall, showing that growth has been uneven and far below the “boom” forecast.

AI governance:

Prediction: The U.S. will propose the first draft framework for regulating AI, setting the stage for future developments. AI’s predictive capabilities will expand across sectors like healthcare, manufacturing, industrial distribution, etc.

Verdict: True. In July 2025, the Trump administration published America's AI Action Plan, identifying over 90 federal policy actions to secure the U.S. AI leadership. AI is reshaping sectors like education, finance, and healthcare, where algorithm-driven insights guide critical decisions.

Education policy shifts:

Prediction: Although the threat of elimination of the Department of Education has been discussed, this will not occur. It may be reduced. Expanded funding for vocational training and STEM programs will gain traction to address skill gaps. A movement to revitalize and educate America’s workforce will emerge as undocumented workers are deported and more Americans are encouraged to re-enter the job market.

Verdict: Mostly True. The Department still operates but is under review for restructuring. Federal and state programs have increased focus on vocational education, though links between deportation policies and workforce revitalization remain unsubstantiated.

Ukraine war ends:

Prediction: Ukraine concedes to Russia, with Crimea becoming a key prize within Trump’s first 100 days in office. Another 2026 prediction to come.

Verdict: False. The war continues, with Ukraine amending its 2025 budget to increase defense spending amid ongoing conflict.

AI-powered industries:

Prediction: Nuclear will make a comeback as the need for clean alternative energy becomes a focus for the electrification of the country.

Verdict: True. Nuclear energy is seeing a clear resurgence, driven by policy support, new investment, and advances in reactor technology. Constellation Energy’s stock is up 45% this year, underscoring renewed market confidence in the sector. While large-scale expansion is still building momentum, nuclear’s strengthened role in the clean-energy transition marks a genuine comeback.

Interest rate plateau:

Prediction: After inflation moderates, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain steady interest rates, creating a stable borrowing environment.

Verdict: Uncertain. Inflation has eased somewhat, but the Federal Reserve continues to adjust rates in response to mixed economic data. The plateau has not materialized.

Energy markets:

Prediction: Oil demand will peak, but the US will pump (per Trump), thus keeping oil relatively stable. Renewable energy investments will outpace fossil fuels, driving the next phase of the energy transition.

Verdict: Partially True. Oil demand remains robust, contradicting the peak prediction. However, renewable energy continues to see strong capital inflows and project growth, reflecting a partial fulfillment of the forecast.

Real estate rebound:

Prediction: U.S. commercial real estate may recover in key urban hubs as hybrid work stabilizes and demand for logistics infrastructure grows. The return to work will have a money multiplier effect, with cities making a shift in their policing policy.

Verdict: Partially True. Certain logistics and industrial sectors have rebounded, but office vacancies remain high. “Return-to-office” efforts have been inconsistent, making recovery uneven across regions.

Cryptocurrency deregulation:

Prediction: Clearer U.S. regulations will increase institutional investment in cryptocurrencies, stabilizing the market. Crypto will be up 25%. At the time of this article, Bitcoin is trading at $100,000 and XRP is trading at $2.30.

Verdict: False. While there is ongoing discussion about cryptocurrency regulations, there is no clear indication of deregulation leading to increased institutional investment as of October 2025. As of October 2025, Bitcoin's price is significantly lower than $100,000, and XRP's price is also below $2.30.

Distribution company:

Prediction: At least one top-tier U.S. plumbing wholesaler (top 15 by revenue) will be acquired by or enter into a major merger with a larger building supply conglomerate.

Verdict: False. While mergers and acquisitions are common in the industry, there is no confirmed acquisition or merger involving a top-tier U.S. plumbing wholesaler as of October 2025.

2026 Predictions

Taken together, these trends point to a year defined by rapid change, new opportunities, and widening gaps between the businesses that adapt and those that hesitate. As always, the goal isn’t perfection but preparation and I hope these predictions help you get ahead of what’s coming in 2026.